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Mainpuri by-election: Shivpal’s silence may increase SP’s challenge, party engaged in damage control A to Z Counsel

Mainpuri by-election: Shivpal's silence may increase SP's challenge, party engaged in damage control


Shivpal Singh Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav.
– Photo : amar ujala

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There is a direct fight between the SP and the BJP in the Mainpuri Lok Sabha by-election. The candidates of both the parties have been announced. In such a situation, the silence of Jaswantnagar MLA Shivpal Singh Yadav can become a challenge for the SP. Because the increase in votes from Jaswantnagar serves to bridge the gap created by other constituencies. SP is also aware of this. This is the reason why he has included Shivpal’s name in the list of star campaigners while doing damage control. But, how effective this exercise will be, only time will tell. While the SP nominated Dimple Yadav, the BJP has placed bets on Raghuraj Singh Shakya, a two-time MP from Etawah. Shakya was once close to Shivpal Singh. Just before the assembly elections, he left Shivpal’s hand and joined the BJP.

In the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, Shakya is considered second only to Yadav in terms of numbers. However, the SP had sensed the BJP’s strategy of betting on the Shakya vote bank. This is the reason why before the announcement of Dimple’s name, efforts have been made to help Shakya vote bank by making former minister Alok Shakya the district president. But Shivpal’s silence can become a challenge for the SP. Sources say that Shivpal Singh and Praspa state president Aditya Yadav have been away from the political stir for three days. He is in Etawah. Shivpal, who has given frank statements, is not even answering the questions of the media. They are in the posture of wait and watch.

read this also – BJP declared candidates for the by-election: Raghuraj Shakya, who was a SP MP, will challenge Dimple

read this also – List of public holidays of 2023 released, Sharadiya Navratri will get four consecutive days off

Jaswantnagar has been compensating
Voters of Jaswant Nagar area have been playing an important role in the elections held in the year 2014 and 2019 on the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat which is considered as the home seat for SP. Lotus has always dominated in Lodhi and Shakya dominated Bhogaon. But as soon as the counting of votes of Jaswant Nagar started, the SP has been ahead. In the 2014 elections, Mulayam Singh got 5.95 lakh votes. While BSP candidate Sanghamitra Maurya got 1.42 lakh votes and BJP’s Shatrughan Singh got 2.31 lakh votes. When Tej Pratap became the SP candidate in the 2014 by-election, the vote count reached 6.53 lakh. BJP’s Prem Singh Shakya got 3.32 lakh. Similarly, in the year 2019, SP’s vote bank fell by about 10 percent and got 5.24 lakh votes. BJP’s Prem Singh Shakya got 4.30 lakh votes, which was an increase of about 11 percent compared to the by-election.

Mainpuri vote math
In Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, different parties calculate castes according to their own. Including all the assembly constituencies, there are about 4.25 lakh Yadavs, 3.25 lakh Shakyas, 2.25 lakh Thakurs, 1.10 lakh Brahmins, 1.20 lakh Dalits, one lakh Lodhis, 70 thousand Vaishyas and 60 thousand Muslim voters.

Praspa chief and SP MLA Shivpal Singh Yadav has been crying out for his humiliation from the public platform. Recently, he had said that he will never stay with SP. He had also talked about entering the fray himself if Mulayam Singh did not contest the election, but now the circumstances have changed. Mulayam is not Singh. The SP has fielded Dimple while the BJP has fielded Raghuraj Singh Shakya, his close friend. In such a situation, those who keep an eye on the political pulse say that the biggest religious crisis is in front of Shivpal.

This is the math of assembly wise vote
Assembly Constituency SP BJP
Constituency 2014 2019 2022 2014 2019 2022 (Year)
Mainpuri 94,600 93,373 93,048 48,626 86,812 99,814
Kishni 97,035 97,135 97,070 41,588 79,353 77,919
Karhal 1,41,068 1,18,133 1,48,196 39,352 79,967 80,692
Bhogaon 74,997 81,636 92,441 76,137 1,07,146 97,208
Jaswantnagar 1,87,755 1,37,407 1,59,718 25,414 75,281 68,739

Expansion

There is a direct fight between the SP and the BJP in the Mainpuri Lok Sabha by-election. The candidates of both the parties have been announced. In such a situation, the silence of Jaswantnagar MLA Shivpal Singh Yadav can become a challenge for the SP. Because the increase in votes from Jaswantnagar serves to bridge the gap created by other constituencies. SP is also aware of this. This is the reason why he has included Shivpal’s name in the list of star campaigners while doing damage control. But, how effective this exercise will be, only time will tell. While the SP nominated Dimple Yadav, the BJP has placed bets on Raghuraj Singh Shakya, a two-time MP from Etawah. Shakya was once close to Shivpal Singh. Just before the assembly elections, he left Shivpal’s hand and joined the BJP.

In the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, Shakya is considered second only to Yadav in terms of numbers. However, the SP had sensed the BJP’s strategy of betting on the Shakya vote bank. This is the reason why before the announcement of Dimple’s name, efforts have been made to help Shakya vote bank by making former minister Alok Shakya the district president. But Shivpal’s silence can become a challenge for the SP. Sources say that Shivpal Singh and Praspa state president Aditya Yadav have been away from the political stir for three days. He is in Etawah. Shivpal, who has given frank statements, is not even answering the questions of the media. They are in the posture of wait and watch.

read this also – BJP declared candidates for the by-election: Raghuraj Shakya, who was a SP MP, will challenge Dimple

read this also – List of public holidays of 2023 released, Sharadiya Navratri will get four consecutive days off

Jaswantnagar has been compensating

Voters of Jaswant Nagar area have been playing an important role in the elections held in the year 2014 and 2019 on the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat which is considered as the home seat for SP. Lotus has always dominated in Lodhi and Shakya dominated Bhogaon. But as soon as the counting of votes of Jaswant Nagar started, the SP has been ahead. In the 2014 elections, Mulayam Singh got 5.95 lakh votes. While BSP candidate Sanghamitra Maurya got 1.42 lakh votes and BJP’s Shatrughan Singh got 2.31 lakh votes. When Tej Pratap became the SP candidate in the 2014 by-election, the vote count reached 6.53 lakh. BJP’s Prem Singh Shakya got 3.32 lakh. Similarly, in the year 2019, SP’s vote bank fell by about 10 percent and got 5.24 lakh votes. BJP’s Prem Singh Shakya got 4.30 lakh votes, which was an increase of about 11 percent compared to the by-election.

Mainpuri vote math

In Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, different parties calculate castes according to their own. Including all the assembly constituencies, there are about 4.25 lakh Yadavs, 3.25 lakh Shakyas, 2.25 lakh Thakurs, 1.10 lakh Brahmins, 1.20 lakh Dalits, one lakh Lodhis, 70 thousand Vaishyas and 60 thousand Muslim voters.

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